User blog:Cfp3157/The 92nd Academy Awards
Bust out the red carpets, the shiny gold trophies, and the billion dollar limos; it's the 92nd Academy Awards! As the decade comes to a close, the Academy Award has decided to play its greatest hits with some traditional Oscar fare for their ballots. To properly bring the 2010's to a close, Beast and Cfp are giving their always interesting commentary to what Hollywood's opinion of its best. The Ceremony The ceremony will be held on February 9th, 2020 with no host for the second time in the last two years. Cfp's Thoughts Frankly there's not much to add to the discussion. The ceremony went really well last year without a host to fluff the runtime. Preferably we'll get some genuine bits like the Walk-In Tour or the Famous Selfie, but if the alternative is that plus a six hour ceremony, I'll take the sacrifice. Beast's Thoughts I was unique last year in arguing that the least interesting element of the Oscars is the host, and while it's somewhat depressing that no one wants what should be an insanely great opportunity, I'm fine if it means we don't get much in the way of deeply irritating banter or forced skits where the punchline is "oh, look at how non-rich people act when in the same room with rich people." Plus, it means this damned show might end on time. Best Lead Actor The nominees are... *Antonio Banderas - Pain & Glory *Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon A Time in...Hollywood *Adam Driver - Marriage Story *Joaquin Phoenix - Joker *Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes Cfp's Thoughts *'Prediction:' It's another sweep season, although it's hard to protest it when considering the quartet of actors getting the praises. With the SAG, the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice, and an overdue cloud hanging over him, Joaquin Phoenix is finally getting the praise he deserves. Although I think it's far from his best performance, it's hard to complain about Phoenix earning a long-deserved Oscar. *'Preference:' One of the possible choices for Actor of the Decade, the way Adam Driver brings raw pain, closed off apathy, and a conflictedly brutish character with nuance and perfection in Marriage Story. Driver's talents have never been in question and 2019 will go down as the Year of Driver regardless, it is unfortunate that he couldn't cap it off with an Academy Award. It's not wort lamenting for long, though, since it's likely his time will be soon. *'Snubbed:' A quietly fantastic actor who has brought emotion to people for the last thirty years without pause, Adam Sandler missing for one of his most engaging and vicious turns in Uncut Gems hurt to the bone. He's not just a gifted actor but a genuinely nice and friendly person who has put in his work to the industry, and it's a shame they didn't give him recognition for stretching himself as an actor. Beast's Thoughts *'Prediction': In what will almost certainly be the surest bet of the major awards, Joaquin Pheonix will claim a long-overdue Oscar. He's got the precursors, the clout, and the widespread popularity of Joker means it'll have to win somewhere, so it's a perfect storm. It helps that he's pretty damned good too. *'Preference': It's strange to argue that a previous winner deserves another, but no performance this year took us through a gamut of emotions quite like Leonardo DiCaprio as Rick Dalton. DiCaprio's Dalton pulls off the full range, from scene-chewing menace to quiet sadness to comical rage, in what is unquestionably the performance of his career. *'Snubbed': While one actor will win for playing the Clown Prince of Crime, it would've been nice to see a future Batman get some love as well. Robert Pattinson's turn in The Lighthouse is what makes the film so masterful, as we witness his descent into madness with a mixture of disgust and sympathy thanks to a uniquely compelling turn. Plus, it would've been nice to get authentic New England accents some awards love. Best Lead Actress The nominees are... *Cynthia Erivo - Harriet *Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story *Saoirse Ronan - Little Women *Charlize Theron - Bombshell *Renee Zellweger - Judy Cfp's Thoughts *'Prediction:' Every time there is a sweep year, there's one that stands out as a returning winner. In 2013, it was Cate Blanchett; in 2017, it was Frances McDormand. Now this year, it's Renee Zellweger in one of her admittedly career best works in Judy. Despite a potential BAFTA upset with their British homegirls Saoirse Ronan or Cynthia Erivo, the Oscar is a safe bet to go to Zellweger. Of the sweeping four, though, she's the most vulnerable. *'Preference:' I swear it's not my personal bias and my emotions guiding this decision, because I genuinely believe that Saoirse Ronan deserves the win. Her performance as the iconic character of Jo March brings a modernity and resolve into the centuries old character. Saoirse's unique talent has always allowed her to find the empathy and appeal in stubborn, thick-headed characters like Lady Bird, Mary Queen of Scots, and Briory, but Jo March feels like a character specifically crafted for Saoirse to bring to life. *'Snubbed:' With a Golden Globe win and a truly explosive year for her stardom, Awkwafina would have both been a quality inclusion to honor and a welcome acceptance of the Asian-American community that Hollywood has ignored for years. It's a shame that her exemplary work in The Farewell couldn't sneak it's way into consideration. Beast's Thoughts *'Prediction': While a series of unconvincing acceptance speeches coupled with the film itself's poor reception could weaken her, Renee Zellweger still feels like a fairly safe bet for her turn in Judy. Academy loves biopics, and in a year as strange as this, this may be their only chance to reward them. *'Preference': While it's not as showy or ripped from the headlines as these other performances, Scarlett Johansson's performance in Marriage Story is still stunning, nailing the often deep sense of sadness and hopefulness faced by countless women and delivering several stand-out moments, from the film's several long takes to it's now memetic argument scene. It's subtle in a way that many recognized performances aren't, but still powerful. *'Snubbed': While Joaquin Pheonix got the most love last year for undergoing a powerful physical transformation, it's very frustrating to see that not translate to momentum for Lupita Nyong'o, who not only played two different characters in Us, but gave one of the last decade's great villainous performances as Red. Few scenes last year were as chilling as that first spoken, croaked "Once..." and that all comes down to a masterful performance. Best Supporting Actor The nominees are... *Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood *Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes *Al Pacino - The Irishman *Joe Pesci - The Irishman *Brad Pitt - Once Upon A Time in...Hollywood Cfp's Thoughts *'Prediction:' If there was ever gonna be a lock in 2019, it was gonna be Brad Pitt for this category in Once Upon A Time in...Hollywood. From the moment audiences got that first look of him leaning in a golf cart and sunglasses on, they knew they were in for something special. Brad Pitt's the perfect candidate; he's the only one of the five without an acting Oscar, he's been totally charming and effortlessly slick on the campaign trail, and he's been sweeping every major precursor. A long-time coming, in my own humble opinion. *'Preference:' I always reserve one category I use for what I want in this category, instead of what I consider the best; I'm using that card for Brad Pitt. He's a Hollywood icon, he's one of the most powerful and influential allies towards minority communities in the film industry, and he's a totally likeable guy. All five men have Cfp Awards before this, including Pitt, so I feel no guilt giving him the preference slot here. *'Snubbed:' It was always something more that pundits cooked up for themselves than within the realm of possibility, but a career nomination for Song Kang-Ho in Parasite as one of the few Asian actors to break out to American audiences would've been very nice. Beast's Thoughts *'Predictions': There has been few perfect storms in awards season quite like the one forming around Brad Pitt. Not only is he a widely respected and incredibly charming industry veteran, always ready with a great quip during his acceptance speech, but it's increasingly seeming as though he may be Once Upon A Time in Hollywood's only win in a massively competitive season. Expect this as the surest bet of the night. *'Preference': Folks, you simply cannot bet against the Dudes Rock movement. Brad Pitt is not only the perfect embodiment of the ideals, but his performance is also a career-best, packing his usual charisma and charm but just the right amount of melancholy and a deep, hidden rage that frequently enabled him to easily steal scene after scene. *'Snubbed': Another veteran who was tragically robbed in what could've been his year, Willem Dafoe gave a genuinely stunning performance in The Lighthouse. From an epic, thundering monologue over lobster to a speech delivered between mouthfuls of dirt, few actors riveted quite like DaFoe, so it's a shame to see him passed over. May the seas have the Oscar voters once and for all. Best Supporting Actress The nominees are... *Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell *Laura Dern - Marriage Story *Scarlett Johansson - Jojo Rabbit *Florence Pugh - Little Women *Margot Robbie - Bombshell Cfp's Thoughts *'Prediction:' Yeah, there's no doubt in my mind that it's gonna be Laura Dern for the win. She's built up her reputation over the years, she's won every award under the sun, and she was nearly the Academy's president a couple years ago. The only question in the awards season was if she'd have the goods with Marriage Story sight unseen. It's been seen, and the question is answered. *'Preference:' Despite the category fraud that it is, there's little to deny that Margot Robbie is giving the best performance of the five women in this category. She's equal parts likeable, believably empathetic when she espouses the more unlikeable parts of her character, and she gets to deliver on the absolute heaviest moments of the film that she carries. It's one of her best in a career that's already filled with good work. *'Snubbed:' She had the SAG Award; she had the Golden Globe nomination; she absolutely slayed at the Super Bowl halftime show; and she's one of the most beloved entertainers of this century. Jennifer Lopez may not be my favorite part of Hustlers, but I've been championing her from day one since she would've had much needed representation to the awards and delivered one of its most genuinely fun nominations ever. Beast's Thoughts *'Prediction:' Is there literally chance this won't be Laura Dern's Oscar? Between winning every precursor and the fact that she's one of the most beloved actresses of our time, I seriously doubt that anything will stop her on this march to victory. I just wish she was winning for a bigger performance. *'Preference': Weird to say that she deserves two on the same night, but Scarlett Johansson can really play the hell out of a mom. Her turn in Jojo Rabbit is a clever balancing act of strength, motherly warmth and humor, and fear, enabling her to cast an effect over the film that lingers long after she's gone from it. *'Snubbed': Comedies are regularly and brutally snubbed, and while there's a few categories I would've liked to have seen Booksmart in, perhaps the most deserved would've been if Bille Lourd had landed a spot here for her wildly chaotic, endlessly quotable weird girl with a heart of gold, Gigi. Best Director The nominees are... *Bong Joon-Ho - Parasite *Sam Mendes - 1917 *Todd Phillips - Joker *Martin Scorsese - The Irishman *Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon A Time in...Hollywood Cfp's Thoughts *'Prediction:' It's hard to knock against the DGA win, the Golden Globe, the PGA winner, a technical behemoth, and status as a previous winner which Oscar likes this decade; Sam Mendes is likely going to win for his admittedly fantastic work in leading the charge of 1917. *'Preference:' With seminal works that have culminated in one of his most personal and ephereal films of a long and illustrious career, Martin Scorsese deserves to have far more Academy Awards for directing than he has. The Irishman is not just the achievement of 2019, it's his achievement for the decade and the achievement of the century for the virtuoso. Watching the general peetering out of The Irishman has been genuinely awful on all counts. *'Snubbed:' Listen, identity politics aren't ever the thing to base one's ultimate vote on; that being said, it's disappointing that the Academy couldn't bring back Greta Gerwig for one of the most engaging and refreshing period pieces of the last decade for her understated but poignant work in Little Women. Beast's Thoughts *'Prediction': With all the precursors lined up and all the buzz around the (admittedly difficult) filming style of 1917, Sam Mendes is likely to take his trophy home for capturing the chaos of war in a way that feels controlled but still deeply real. *'Preference': Basically anyone, save Todd Phillips, could take home this trophy and I'd still be satisfied, but personally, I'm pulling for the tightly-controlled, wonderfully unique style of Bong Joon-Ho, who frequently made absurd magic out of the mundane throughout Parasite, to pull through. Plus, imagine how charmingly half-assed the speech would be. *'Snubbed': Director duos are very rarely awarded at the Oscars, so I shouldn't be let down by the lack of Josh and Benny Safdie, but to accept this is also to ignore the nerve-wracking, organized insanity that they created with Uncut Gems. The club fight scene alone should've guaranteed these two a spot on the ballot. Category:Blog posts Category:Predictions